USA Pandemic Model

This model allows you to see the effects of different types of Pandemics on the USA. We have put China’s, Korea’s and Italy’s analyses of their pandemic so you can see what would happen in Australia. You can change the percentage of people infected too, and the distribution of mild, severe and critical cases among those who are taken ill.

Australian Pandemic Model

This model allows you to see the effects of different types of Pandemics on Australia. We have put China’s, Korea’s and Italy’s analyses of their pandemic so you can see what would happen in Australia. You can change the percentage of people infected too, and the distribution of mild, severe and critical cases among those who are taken ill.

Flattening the peak saves lives

Because the hospital system is overwhelmed when the disease reaches a peak, social distancing spreads out the peak and allows sick people to get better treatment, saving lives.

Current estimates of COVID-19 US Pandemic

This NY Times article from March 13 gives the most recent modelling estimates of the spread of COVID-19 in the US over the next year. There are a range of fatalities predicted, from 400,000 to well over 1,000,000

COVID compared with other epidemics

The range of infectiousness puts COVID-19 at the high end of pandemics in the 20th century. In terms of severity, the range goes from fairly low, like the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, to fairly high, close to the 1918 Spanish Flu or SARS.